Weekly Poll Tracker: Close To The Elusive Majority

Last October during the election, Eric and I did a daily poll tracker that followed the aggregate numbers of support across many different polling companies. It was a moderate success. The poll tracker predicted the Conservatives would win with 34.9% support of the vote, followed by the Liberals with 26.9%, the NDP with 19.3%, the Green Party with 8.6%, and the Bloc Quebecois with 9.7%. The actual election results were fairly close to that prediction. The Conservatives finished with 37.6%, the Liberals with 26.2%, the NDP with 18.2%, the Green Party with 6.8%, and the Bloc Quebecois with 10%.

Two polls took place between October 3-10. First the Strategic Counsel polled Quebec, Ontario, the Western provinces, and the Rest of Canada [ROC] in a sample of 1,000 adults between October 2-4. The results:

In Quebec, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by a substantial margin of 33% to 15%, with the Bloc retaining 40% of the vote. In Ontario, however, the Conservatives now command 46% of the vote, 16 points ahead of the Liberals. Western Canada is a stronghold for the Conservatives, with 58% supporting them, and just 18% and 15% for the Liberals and NDP, respectively. The ROC is also showing strong Conservative support with 48% to just 26% for the Liberals. This means that only Quebec is holding back the Conservatives from really securing a majority government in polling numbers.

The gender gap is also closing. Where female candidates had traditionally supported the Liberals, now 36% would vote Conservative, and just 28% Liberal. Only among females aged 18-35 would not support the current government, with 33% voting Liberal to 28% for the Conservatives. The Conservatives also enjoy support across all education lines, and almost all income levels, with those who make less than $50,000 a year supporting the Liberals marginally more than the Conservatives at 37% to 33%.

The second poll took place between September 29-October 6, with 3,333 respondents from Ekos:

In the Ekos poll, Conservatives lead across the entire spectrum of Canada, except in Quebec where the Bloc command as usual, although they lead the Liberals by a percentage point there as well. Both males and females now support the Conservatives across all age groups, except for women under the age of 25, and they lead across all education lines. Perhaps most surprisingly, the Conservatives led a small sample size of 307 residents of Toronto with 44.8% to 35.6% over the Liberals.

Based on these two polls, and polls calculated in previous weeks going back to September 15, the following estimate is made on where the parties stand:

Saturday, October 10, 2009:

Oct 10 2008 Oct 3 Sept 26 Sept 19 CPC 40.0 37.6 36.3 37.0 35.5 LIB 26.2 26.2 29.0 29.6 29.8 NDP 14.9 18.2 14.7 14.5 14.3 GRN 9.5 6.8 9.3 9.5 9.1 BQ 9.5 10.0 10.1 9.1 9.5